The special reporting.
The special reporting.
Estimating prospects of economic growth in the USA this year,
Economists and heads of corporations remind more and more
President Bill Clinton giving the evidences before court
Jurymen. "All depends that you understand as a word
"Growth", - notices Exhaust Herris (Maury Harris), the group economist
UBS Warburg. - If you mean returning to growth level
2000 it will not be ".
Thus, practically there are no doubts that in the nearest
12 months economy of the USA leave recession. At least, to
To the end of II quarter it will reach the lowest point and will start to grow.
Combination of considerable fall of the discount rates undertaken
Federal reserve system, and last year's decrease in taxes
Should give desirable effect and to protect from landslide falling.
Even if democrats and republicans will not manage to agree about
Package of corresponding financial measures.
Economy revival, however, will not be especially impressing. On
To estimation Economy.com Inc. (West Chester, the State of Pennsylvania), with IV
Quarter 2001 till IV quarter 2002 growth will make approximately
2 %. Besides, everything before to become better, can become worse. "I
I consider, that economic lifting most likely in the second
To half of year, - Thomas Horton (Thomas W speaks.
Horton), main financier American Airlines Inc. - Remains
Only to guess, how much it will be serious ".
This uncertainty is connected by that a situation today
Much more difficult, than during last recession. To begin that,
Though recession in technological sector also will stop, considerable
Increases in volumes of purchases by the companies of computers or
The software can be expected at the best in IV
Quarter. Under the pressure of present circumstances a management
The companies assumes to continue to cut down all expenses, what
Only it is possible, aspiring thus to lower zatratnost and
To raise labour productivity.
Efficiency increase - good business, but aspiration to be pressed down
Can give an unpleasant by-effect: employment will grow
Very slowly and after the beginning of revival of economy. Unemployment
Even can continue to grow, because employers will be
To demand, that workers did by smaller number more. And
Saved unemployment will mean reduction
Consumer demand which marvellously has well gone through
The recession initial stage. This gap cannot close itself and
Foreign buyers - because of economic recession abroad.
"It is possible to speak about everything, only not about soft planting, which
Many predicted one year ago ", - John Perriss (John considers
Perriss), head Zenith Optimedia Group.
And still, according to Economy. com, from IV quarter 2001
Year till IV quarter 2002 the companies entering into the exchange
Rating Standard and Poor's 500, can achieve 10 percent
Increases in profit at the expense of increase of labour productivity and
Reductions of production costs. Forecasts of others
Experts are even more optimistical. "In IV quarter in incomes
Essential growth "is planned, - Bruce Stejnberg (Bruce insists
Steinberg), group economist Merrill Lynch and Co. On it
To assumptions, for the same period of profit of these companies will grow
On 30 %. Having cut down supplying expenses, manufacturers of products
A food, such as Campbell Soup, Kellogg and ConAgra, expect
Growth of incomes on 8-10 %. And manufacturers of medicines still
Receive much thanks to new preparations. "For last three
Year efficiency of our research jobs
Has doubled ", - head Eli Lilly and Co speaks. Sydney Torel (Sidney
Taurel).
Productivity growth is yet all. The low registration
Rates will go on advantage to banks as will provide cheap credits
And more favourable conditions of loans. After September, 11th insurers
Plan to raise sharply level of insurance awards, and defensive
The sector and everything, that works on safety, will blossom on a measure
Expansions "wars with terrorism". In retail trade
Cheap networks will prosper still. Head Wal-Mart Stores
Inc. H.Li Scott-junior (H. Lee Scott Jr.) plans to increase
Capital expenses on 11 %, having finished them to 10 billion dollars,
And to employ in 2002 75 thousand new employees.
Low rates will keep afloat and building branch, though
Special positive motions here it is not planned. "When
The federal reserve system reduces a discount rate, the cores
Hopes are connected by that the economy will start to grow
As building ", - considers Lynn Mikaelis (Lynn Michaelis),
The leading economist of the building and pulp-and-paper giant
Weyerhaeuser Co. During last recession in economy, for example,
Building of houses was reduced to one family very sharply and,
When improvement as it is sharply trite upwards has begun, having pulled for
Itself other branches.
This time habitation building was reduced not strongly,
Therefore, possibly, and strong jerk upwards will not follow. "A vein
The sector at the best will be neutral and can slightly
To brake ", - speaks Mikaelis.
On the other hand, the branches demanding large investments, will be
To conduct active struggle for a survival. "It is simple to foretell, that in
I half-year of the company will cut down expenses ", - specifies J.
Thomas Medden (J. Thomas Madden), the head of sector of investments
Federated Investors Inc. At the enterprises, whose capacities are occupied,
For example, on 72 %, is not present either reasons, or means for purchase of the new
The equipment. It concerns and consumers of the hi-tech
The equipment. They are more interested not in updating
Equipments, and in, that already available computers and programs
Worked better.
"Experts in information technologies speak:" Will suffice,
Have taken a walk, have typed in charcoal fumes of technological features. It is time to moderate
Heat, - Vernon Turner (Vernon Turner), an analyst marks
International Data Corp. - Buying more than it is necessary for them, they
Feel nekomfortno ".
As a result of "iron" and software sale can
To fall on 5-10 % a year till the end of June, predicts Nile Soss (Neal
Soss), leading economist Credit Suisse First Boston. "Here and there
There are light stains, but it is not enough of them to speak about
Considerable improvement of a situation in acquisition of computers and
Programs ", - Michael Uinkler (Michael Winkler) speaks,
Executive vice-president Compaq Computer Corp.
Drying of a stream of corporate means negatively
Has affected and the industry of tourism and travel. According to data
PricewaterhouseCoopers, building of additional numbers
Hotels will fall to 33 200 against peak in 158 000 per 1998 - as
The consequence of attempts of hotel business to be arranged under decrease
Demand. Airlines have been compelled to reduce after September, 11th
Volume of transportations on 20 %, and, probably, 6 % and will not be restored.
"Our indicators not such as should be", - considers Gordon
Betjun (Gordon M. Bethune), general director Continental
Airlines Inc.
Mass media, because will suffer also
Advertisers will continue to save. Expenses on advertising in
2001 have decreased in the USA on 4 % and in the world - on 1,7 %. This the first
Falling such on a global scale since times of the termination of the Second
World war. Advertising giant Universal McCann assumes
Moderate growth in 2,2 % - to the sum of 466 billion dollars, in
The core in second half of year.
Prospects for the companies on manufacture of the goods of consumption
Is not better at all. The consumers which with firmness have sustained recession in 2001
To year, by IV quarter can appear in a knockout. In the report from
On December, 3rd the Ministry of Trade of the USA notices, that taking into account all
Tax payments population incomes have decreased in October on 2,4 %.
This indicator will worsen in process of growth of unemployment to
6,5-7 % to the middle of year.
Already it is now obvious, that unemployment growth conducts to decrease
Wages level. It is considered at index calculation
Work costs, and by III quarter of last year growth of this
By index component it was slowed down from 1,1 % in July to 0,7 % in September.
With growth of unemployment rates of increase in wages will be
To decrease and further.
But consumer expenses influence not only problems with
The salary. Low level of interest rates under credits
Has pushed many hastening with the large
Acquisitions till 2002. Such is a state of affairs with sale
Motor vehicles. In this sector active crediting and aggressive
Advertising have involved so many clients, that in 2002 of sale
Can fall more than to 10 % to low level in 14,8
One million cars. It threatens automobile community of Detroit
Falling of profits. "Sale of 16 million cars to anybody from
North American manufacturers of the present money will not bring ", -
Marks Medden from Federated Investors.
Unfortunately, the American companies will not manage to compensate
Losses in home market at the expense of foreign consumers. In
90th years of the USA constantly set a rhythm to economic.
The majority of economists, in particular foreign, expected, that
The main engine of growth next decade will appear Europe
And Asia. Perhaps so it also will be, but predicted indicators on
2002 about what similar do not speak.
Actually, economic growth this year, on
To calculations, will crawl to 1,1 %. Economy of Europe still
It is shaken slowly, and Japanese - in which already time - slides
Back. Would aggravate a situation what absence that even more
Was signs of global boom in labour productivity sphere
The USA. According to all available information, its average growth, for example, in Europe
Will be up to standard sonorous 0 %.
At all these sad news whence undertake still
Any hopes of economy improvement? The matter is that
Many companies were reduced already so, what even the minimum
Growth of demand will demand expenses for that it to satisfy. And
It will go on advantage even to branches which have strongly suffered from recession,
For example metallurgy. "Many our buyers have seriously reduced
Reserve stocks became, - Robert Miller (ml speaks.) (Robert
S. "Steve" Miller Jr.), the chapter of the third on size
The metallurgical company in America Bethlehem Steel Corp. - I
I test cautious optimism in this respect ".
Besides, consumers still gain from the low
Interest rates under credits, electric power depreciation
And reduction of the surtax approved by legislators in
June of last year. As a whole it can mean growth of incomes
The population on 3 %, are considered by Bruce Stejnberg from Merrill Lynch. It
Should hold consumer expenses at decent level even
At growing unemployment.
During boom of 90th years of the company did the rate on the fast
Growth was put also before themselves by the transcendental purposes. This year in number
Virtues there will be a patience and moderate expectations. Economy
Will grow, but slowly, and it will be more pleasant, than last year's
Uncertainty.
Margaret Popper (Margaret Popper) c Volume Louri (Tom Lowry) in
New York, Michael Arndt (Michael Arndt) and Dzhuli Forster (Julie
Forster) in Chicago, Andrew Park (Andrew Park) and Uendi Zellner
(Wendy Zellner) in Dallas and Emi Berret (Amy Barret) in
Philadelphia. - Business Week.
SCHEDULE 1. Whence and how much comes to gross national product? (An estimation on 2002
Year, billion $).
New workers 143
Sector of consumer goods 182
The government 611
Information sector 816
Financial sector 861
The branches of a science directly related to quality of a life
(Medicine, biology and so forth) 870
Individual services 1060
Business of service 1568
Distribution services 1962
Manufacture 1996
Other 411
Total amount of gross national product of 10 480 billion dollars.
Source: Economy.com. Business Week.
SCHEDULE 2. Prospects in figures
Column (1) - п п?п п п?п я п п я *
Column (2) - 1998
Column (3) - 1999
Column (4) - 2000
Column (5) - 2001 **
Column (6) - 2002 **
(1 (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Real growth of gross national products (%) 4,8 4,4 2,7 0,3 2,3
Changes in profits of the companies (%) 10 12 1 13 10
Changes in foreign investments into the equipment and
The software (%) 15 11 8 11 2
Growth of individual consumption (%) 5,1 5,3 4,2 1,8 1,8
Rate of unemployment (%) 4,4 4,0 3,9 5,5 6,2
* Since IV quarter till IV quarter
** Tentative estimation
Source: Economy.com. - Business Week.
SCHEDULE 3. Economic growth in the world in 2002
Column (1) - Region
Column (2) - Growth of gross national products (%)
(1 (2)
Asia (without Japan) 3,2
The European union 2,0
Latin America 1,1
The North America 0,7
Japan 1,0
In total in the world 1,1
Source: Economy.com. Business Week.
<$>
//* an information Source: the Profile, 14.01.02
//* Reg. Nom. - 1120100097.09-------------------------------------------
|
